Buster Blackjack - Wizard of Odds (2024)

  • Appendices
    • 1: Total dependent expected return table for an infinite deck
    • 2a: Probabilities of dealer blackjack after peek
    • 2b: Probabilities of dealer blackjack before peek
    • 3a: Exceptions to single-deck S17 basic strategy
    • 3b: Exceptions to double-deck S17 basic strategy
    • 3c: Exceptions to single-deck H17 basic strategy
    • 4: Blackjack standard deviation details
    • 5: Infinite deck expected return by player hand and dealer upcard
    • 6: Fine points of when to surrender
    • 7: Effect of card removal
    • 8: Analysis of blackjack side bets
    • 9: Composition-dependent expected returns for 1 to 8 decks
    • 10: Continuous shuffling machine vs. cut card
    • 11: Value and strategy for 678 and 777 bonuses
    • 12: Risk of ruin statistics
    • 13: Probabilities in the first four cards
    • 14: Value of each initial player card
    • 15: House edge using total-dependent vs. composition-dependent basic strategy
    • 16: Basic strategy when dealer exposes both cards
    • 17: The Ace-Five card counting method
    • 18: Basic strategy exceptions for three to six cards
    • 19: Blackjack splitting strategy when a back-player is betting
    • 20: Blackjack doubling strategy when doubling after splitting aces is allowed
    • 21: Details on the Wizard\’s Simple Strategy
  • Miscellaneous
    • My comments on the movie "21"
    • Australian Blackjack
    • Introduction to Card Counting
    • Rule Variations
    • Blackjack "Charlie" Rule
    • Rummy (Blackjack variant popular in Costa Rica)
  • External Links
  • Home
  • Games
  • Buster Blackjack

On this page

Introduction

I saw Buster Blackjack in Lake Tahoe on July 9, 2016, but I think it has been around for years. The bet wins if the dealer busts. The more cards it takes, the more the player wins. The bet is marketed by AGS.

Rules

The rules to the side bet are quite simple. If the dealer busts, then the player wins according to how many cards were needed to bust. If the dealer does not bust, then the side bet loses. I know of two pay tables, which are shown below. All wins are on a "to one" basis.

Version 1 Pay Table

CardsPays
8 or more250
750
615
54
3 or 42

Version 2 assumes that if the player gets a blackjack, then the dealer will still play out his hand.

Version 2 Pay Table

CardsPays
8+ cards & player BJ2000
7 cards & player BJ800
8+ cards & no player BJ250
7 cards & no player BJ50
6 cards18
5 cards4
3 or 4 cards2

Pay Table 1 Analysis

The following table shows the probability and return of all possible outcomes, assuming six decks and the dealer hits a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.21%.

Pay Table 1 — Six Decks — Dealer Hits Soft 17

EventPaysProbabilityReturn
Bust with 8 cards2500.0000120.002986
Bust with 7 cards500.0002140.010722
Bust with 6 cards120.0026380.031651
Bust with 5 cards40.0204730.08189
Bust with 4 cards20.0893920.178784
Bust with 3 cards20.1730320.346064
Dealer doesn't bust-10.714241-0.714241
Total1.000000-0.062143

The next table shows the house edge for other number of decks and whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17.

House Edge Summary

DecksStand on
Soft 17
Hit on
Soft 17
18.77%6.89%
28.48%6.51%
48.31%6.29%
58.27%6.25%
68.25%6.21%
88.22%6.17%

Pay Table 2 Analysis

The following table shows the probability and return of all possible outcomes, assuming six decks and the dealer stands on a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.20%.

Pay Table 2 — Six Decks — Dealer Stands on Soft 17

EventPaysProbabilityReturn
8+ cards & player BJ20000.000000370.000746886
7 cards & player BJ8000.000007860.006284453
8+ cards2500.000008080.002020582
7 cards500.000164780.008239127
6 cards180.002315120.041672197
5 cards40.019119390.076477552
3 or 4 cards20.260305740.520611475
No bust-10.71807866-0.718078658
Total1.00000000-0.062026386

Mega Blackjack

Mega Blackjack is a blackjack variant that has special pay tables for the Buster Blackjack bet, as shown below. Note that for pay table 3 the dealer must bust with four or more cards for the side bet to win.

Buster Blackjack Version 3

EventPaysProbabilityReturn
Bust with 8+ cards2500.0000120.002986
Bust with 7 cards500.0002140.010722
Bust with 6 cards150.0026380.039564
Bust with 5 cards100.0204730.204726
Bust with 4 cards60.0893920.536351
All other-10.887272-0.887272
Total1.000000-0.092923

Version 2 of Buster Blackjack has a pay table that pays for any busted dealer hand of three or more cards. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 13.79%.

Buster Blackjack Version 4

EventPaysProbabilityReturn
Bust with 8+ cards2500.0000120.002986
Bust with 7 cards500.0002140.010722
Bust with 6 cards150.0026380.039564
Bust with 5 cards40.0204730.081890
Bust with 4 cards30.0893920.268175
Bust with 3 cards10.1730320.173032
All other-10.714240-0.714240
Total1.000000-0.137870

Evolution Gaming

The live dealer studio by Evolution Gaming offers a game called Infinite Blackjack with the following pay table. The other rules are eight decks, dealer stands on soft 17, and the dealer always plays out his hand, even if the player gets blackjack. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.18%.

Evolution Gaming Pay Table and Rules

EventPaysProbabilityReturn
Bust with 8+ cards2500.0000090.002216
Bust with 7 cards1000.0001770.017679
Bust with 6 cards500.0023370.116829
Bust with 5 cards90.0191390.172254
Bust with 4 cards20.0871630.174325
Bust with 3 cards10.1730150.173015
Dealer doesn't bust-10.718160-0.718160
Total1.000000-0.061842

General Dealer Analysis

As long as I took the trouble to analyze this bet, I created a table showing the probability of various dealer events for a six-deck and eight-deck games and whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17.

Dealer Probabilities — Six Decks

EventStand Soft 17Hit Soft 17
Dealer blackjack0.04748948800395740.0474894880039574
Total of 170.14524526887627300.1334589459656700
Total of 180.13925777126717900.1412046774882130
Total of 190.13368473928685500.1356816733415020
Total of 200.17952730382366200.1815306022489940
Total of 210.07287408707138310.0748744175668735
Bust with 3 cards0.17303184316979500.1730318431697950
Bust with 4 cards0.08727389457785430.0893918097334332
Bust with 5 cards0.01911938797791390.0204725508735587
Bust with 6 cards0.00231512206192650.0026376021859953
Bust with 7 cards0.00017263811114200.0002144441681795
Bust with 8 cards0.00000820974406260.0000115279883244
Bust with 9 cards0.00000024202521930.0000004080497202
Bust with 10 cards0.00000000397332940.0000000090950948
Bust with 11 cards0.00000000002939700.0000000001198596
Bust with 12 cards0.00000000000004750.0000000000008244
Bust with 13 cards0.00000000000000000.0000000000000022
Total1.00000000000000001.0000000000000000

Dealer Probabilities — Eight Decks

EventStand Soft 17Hit Soft 17
Total of 170.1452150.133409
Total of 180.1393180.141280
Total of 190.1336290.135630
Total of 200.1797090.181714
Total of 210.0728380.074841
Blackjack0.0474510.047451
Bust with 3 cards0.1730150.173015
Bust with 4 cards0.0871630.089276
Bust with 5 cards0.0191390.020491
Bust with 6 cards0.0023370.002661
Bust with 7 cards0.0001770.000219
Bust with 8 cards8.60E-061.21E-05
Bust with 9 cards2.63E-074.44E-07
Bust with 10 cards4.58E-091.06E-08
Bust with 11 cards3.76E-111.55E-10
Bust with 12 cards8.35E-141.29E-12
Bust with 13 cards0.00E+004.56E-15

External Links

Written by: Michael Shackleford

Buster Blackjack - Wizard of Odds (2024)

FAQs

What is the payout for the Buster bet? ›

Buster Blackjack – This is an optional bet that pays off when the dealer busts. Payouts increase with the number of bust cards in the dealer hand. When the player has blackjack, a dealer 7-card bust hand pays a $1000 bonus, and a dealer 8-card bust hand pays an $8000 bonus (must bet $5 to quality for the bonus payout).

How do you win at Buster blackjack? ›

Whether the dealer's hand busts or not is beside the point to beat this pay table: the primary goal is to have multi-card hands. Removing a single deuce from a six-deck shoe moves the edge towards the house by 0.77%. That's big. Also, an Ace never busts with fewer than four cards.

What are the odds of busting in blackjack? ›

Hit on 14 = 56% chance of busting. Hit on 13 = 39% chance of busting. Hit on 12 = 31% chance of busting. Hit on 11 or less = 0% chance of busting.

What is the buster bonus in blackjack? ›

BUSTER BLACKJACK BONUS BET

The Buster Blackjack wager allows the player to bet that the player-dealer will bust. The greater the number of cards in the player-dealer's busted hand, the higher the payoff. There will be a distinctive marked circle on the table in which the player will place the optional wager.

What were the odds on Buster Tyson? ›

What happened: On Feb. 11, 1990, he overcame 42-to-1 odds and defeated Tyson in the 10th round. A week later, musician Warren Zevon played a tribute to Douglas while performing at Newport Music Hall.

What is the biggest bet payout ever? ›

Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, owner of Gallery Furniture in Houston, won approximately $75 million off $10 million in bets on the Astros to win the World Series. It's believed to be the largest payout in American sports betting history, with the bulk of the haul coming from Louisiana sportsbooks.

Can you statistically win at blackjack? ›

In most cases, yes, blackjack offers the best odds in a casino. This is largely because there are three outcomes here: a win, a loss, and a tie (push). Since the odds of a push rest at 8.48% and the chances of losing come in at 49.10%, the probability of winning a game of blackjack is high at 42.22%.

How often do dealers bust in blackjack? ›

As for overall bust rate, in a common six-deck game, dealers bust about 29 percent of the time if they stand on all 17s, and just under 30 percent if they hit soft 17. Basic strategy players bust about 16 percent of the time. That's because players hit fewer hands than dealers do.

What are the odds of winning 10 blackjack hands in a row? ›

As explained on this page, the probability of winning a hand of blackjack is about 42.22%. If we assume ties count against the streak, the chance of winning ten hands of blackjack in a row are about 0.422210 , or 0.018%, or 1 in 5555.

Is blackjack more skill or luck? ›

Blackjack is a game of math and statistics — not luck. While playing correctly won't guarantee success, it will significantly improve your odds to the point where you can even have the edge over the casino. Remember to play using Basic Strategy and adjust your bet size when the odds shift.

What is the bust bonus rule? ›

Bust Bonus is a proposition wager that wins if the point total of the Dealer's hand exceeds 21; i.e., the dealer busts. The amount paid varles and is based on the Dealer's up-card.

What is the best side bet in blackjack? ›

The above three blackjack side bets — 21+3, Perfect Pairs, and Royal Match — are the best side bets because of their lower house edge compared to other side bets.

What is the payout on a bet? ›

This is the money you stand to win from the bet you entered. To win: This represents your profit from this bet using the amount you bet, and the odds you entered. So if you put in $10 at +110 odds, your "to win" amount would be $11. Total payout: This is the "to win" amount, plus whatever you risked.

What is the payout on horse racing bets? ›

In its simplest form, horse racing payouts are dictated by $2 win bets. If you make a $2 win bet on a horse that goes off at 2-to-1, you would profit $4 and collect $6 with your returned investment. If you make a $2 win bet on a horse that goes off at 5-to-1, you would profit $10 and collect $12.

What is the payout for a show bet? ›

Winnings on show bets are unlimited and based on the odds when the gates break open, signaling the start of the race. Payoffs are calculated by the total pool less the track's takeout (basically commission), then divided among all the winning tickets.

How much does moneyline pay out? ›

A moneyline pays out based of $100: If you bet the favorite, the odds indicate how much you must bet to win $100; if you bet the underdog, the odds indicate how much you would win on a $100 bet. The total payout would be the initial stake plus your profit.

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